Cincinnati (+5) over Houston- Only two of the Bengals’ first five have been at home, and their defense filled with youngsters and rejects led by Antwan Odom and his eight sacks, and are allowing just 18 points a game. They seem inspired to play hard for DC Mike Zimmer, who lost his wife just over a week ago. But the Bengals are 23^rd in the league against the pass while Matt Schaub and Houston are in the top five. Pressure has to be applied to Schaub and Cincy needs to key in on Steve Slaton to have a chance. The Bengals have had success in the past with a good RB and they now have one in Cedric Benson, the league’s leading rusher. Carson Palmer is now healthy and Chad Johnson is happy, and Dunta Robinson will have a tough day. The Texans are 26^th against the run, so look for the Bengals to force a pair of turnovers and for Benson to lead the Bengals to 5-1. Who Dey???
Green Bay (+13.5) over Detroit- Matthew Stafford is still banged up, but healthy enough that the Lions will probably play him on Sunday in Lambeau over Daunte Culpepper, who did well enough at home against Pittsburgh last week to cover the spread. In addition, it’ll be really hard for Detroit to generate offense without Calvin Johnson. With the Packers coming off a bye week to prepare needing a win desperately to keep up with Minnesota and Chicago in the division, look for the offensive line to play better for Aaron Rodgers who should have a stellar game in a Green Bay victory.
Minnesota (+3) over Baltimore- This is a great game featuring two really good defenses, and the key is undoubtedly Adrian Peterson. If he has as bad a game as he did against the Rams and Packers, the Vikings will have no chance at winning. This could potentially be that game where Brett Favre unravels and throws a couple of picks, so Brad Childress needs to keep it conservative. The Metrodome will get loud for Joe Flacco and I expect the Minnesota defense to be the heroes in this game with Jared Allen leading the charge and stuffing Baltimore’s sixth ranked run attack.
NY Giants over New Orleans- As you would imagine with two 5-0 teams, there are statistical leaders all over the place. The Giants and Saints are 2 and 3 in total offense, the Saints and Giants are 2 and 4 in rushing yards per game, and New York is first in total defense and in passing yards allowed per game. Big Blue boasts the NFL leader in receiving yards in Steve Smith and New Orleans has Darren Sharper to watch him like a hawk as Sharper leads the league in interceptions with five. The Football Scientist KC Joyner told SprungOnSports that this would be a large part of the biggest key to the week’s best game:
 “The matchup I’ll be looking for here is the Saints secondary vs. the Giants WRs.” Joyner said. “NO goes four deep at CB better than any other team and the Giants haven’t faced a secondary this strong this year. I’ll take the Saints.”
While I agree with Joyner premise, the Saints haven’t faced a running game close to as good as the Giants’ and the only time the Saints played a defense as good as the Giants, their offense was stymied by Rex Ryan and the Jets. So look for a big statement win from the Giants, but it will be a hard fought win for New York in the Big Easy.
Pittsburgh (+14) over Cleveland- Everyone knows that Cleveland won despite completing only two passes in their win at Buffalo last week aided by a muffed Roscoe Parrish punt. But Pittsburgh didn’t look too great in Detroit last week and their vaunted defense from last year has players dropping like flies, this time standout DE Aaron Smith. But the people of Pittsburgh happen to hate the city of Cleveland like Rush Limbaugh hates people who disagree with him. You and I both saw how an impassioned Steel City crowd aided the Steelers in an emphatic beatdown of San Diego just a couple of weeks ago, so imagine what will happen when the Pittsburgh defense keys in on the running game and forces the inept Derek Anderson to beat them. With Rashard Mendenhall’s status in doubt, look for Ben Roethlisberger have a big day through the air and for the Steelers to cover the spread with ease.
Carolina (+3.5) over Tampa Bay –After a huge comeback win over Washington last week, the Panthers go into Tampa with the offensive identity they should have been employing all season, and that’s pounding the rock and limiting Jake Delhomme’s mistakes. If they can do that against the Bucs’ 28^th ranked run defense and stifle Tampa’s running game like they did to Clinton Portis last week, their pass rush should have a good deal of success against Josh Johnson and the Panthers should get a good division road win to continue their march back to .500.
Kansas City over Washington – The Chiefs played extremely competetive against Dallas last week, allowing only Miles Austin to go wild in their overtime loss last Sunday. Unfortunately, something the Redskins have done well to get a large percentage of their points has been the deep pass to Santana Moss. KC has to contain that at all costs in order to win. Matt Cassel was sensational last week and should be again this week, but both teams need to get their running games going in order to make this a watchable game. Larry Johnson and Clinton Portis have had rough seasons so far. Look for the Chiefs to force Jason Campbell into trouble and for the Chiefs to earn their first victory and lead to the firing of Jim Zorn.
Jacksonville (+9.5) over St. Louis- The Jaguars’ coaching staff may not know this, but Maurice Jones-Drew is their best player. After MJD’s complaints this week about the team’s playcalling, I think he should get the touches necessary for the team to come up with a 10 point win over the worst team in the league, provided that the defense holds Steven Jackson to under 125 yards. I trust Jacksonville like I trust a compulsive liar under oath. They got destroyed by Seattle last week but Marc Bulger seems like he’s done and the Jaguars need this win too badly. If they did lose at home, I wondered whether Jack Del Rio would find his way on the hot seat.
 “He’s not going anywhere now, and probably not this year.” ESPN’s AFC South Blogger Paul Kuharsky said. “Bad loss? Warm seat that will cool off.”
Luckily, the Jags won’t have to worry about that this week after a win over the Rams.
Arizona over Seattle- After their 41-0 win over Jacksonville, I don’t know why I don’t trust the Seahawks at home over the Cardinals. If Arizona can find a way to stop Matt Hasselbeck, they’ll be in good shape because they actually have the number one run defense in the league. I didn’t know that either. But Seattle’s strength on defense counters Arizona’s strength with the Seahawks boasting the ninth ranked pass D. But I trust in Kurt Warner’s ability to sling the ball around anyway in a hostile environment and I’ll choose Arizona for the road division upset.
Philadelphia (+14) over Oakland- I thought it would take Donovan McNabb and the Eagles offense at least the Tampa game to get things together. I was wrong. Jeremy Maclin had his breakout game and the Raiders did a bad job overall on defense against the Giants. The Eagles should and will run the ball more with Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy against the 31^st ranked run defense. Philadelphia forced three interceptions from Josh Johnson last week, and should have similar success against the painfully inaccurate JaMarcus Russell especially with Darren McFadden out of the lineup. The Eagles should walk all over the Raiders.
New England (+9.5) over Tennessee- Nick Harper is out, Cortland Finnegan and Michael Griffin are questionable, and the depleted secondary of the Titans play who this week? Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Joey Galloway and a Patriots team whose offensive line will battle a Tennessee defense with the 19^th most sacks in the game. It looks like the New England pass attack could finally be unleashed this week. The Titans are going to show something one of these weeks, and Chris Johnson should have a good game. But coming off a heartbreaker to Denver and Bill Belichik’s favorite student, don’t bet against a desperate Patriots team playing a ravaged Titans secondary.
NY Jets (+9.5) over Buffalo- After Rex Ryan’s defense looked lost last week in a loss at Miami against the Wildcat, I’m pretty sure they can have an easier time with a Buffalo offense, provided they can contain Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson in the running game. New York should be able to apply as much pressure as they’d like on Trent Edwards. The Darrelle Revis-Terrell Owens matchup is going to be what’s talked about but the two players are going in opposite directions in their careers. The Buffalo defense could cause Mark Sanchez some trouble, but his new toy Braylon Edwards should have no trouble beating the Bills secondary to the tune of a big bounceback win for the Jets.
Atlanta (+3.5) over Chicago- I’m going to love watching this game on Sunday night. Two young QB’s in Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler, two great running backs in Michael Turner and Matt Forte and a pair of solid defenses. Chicago has had a lot of success stopping the run, but they may have a good deal of trouble stopping Roddy White, who went absolutelt bannanas last week against the 49ers. I really like what the Bears can do and think they can go a long way in the postseason, but I’m leaning towards the Falcons based on what happened the last time Cutler played on Sunday Night Football on the road in Green Bay. The crowd at the Georgia Dome is going to get loud and Atlanta will force turnovers and keep it going with a big conference win.