Buffalo (+6) over Cleveland- This is a very tenuous pick for me, considering the Browns hadd their first NFL-worthy performance last week against Cincinnati and the Bills got thoroughly dominated in Miami. Rookie WR Mouhammed Massaquoi had a very promising game last week and should be able to fill their number one receiver role, something Braylon Edwards could not do with all his off-the-field issues and dropped passes. Jerome Harrison and Jamal Lewis (if he plays) should do well against a team that allowed 250+ on the ground last week. Despite these facts, I expect Trent Edwards to bounce back from a poor performance, Fred Jackson to have a strong game and for the Bills to protect their home field and win plus the six. If they fail to do this, Bills fans may want Dick Jauron’s head on a stick.
Pittsburgh (+10.5) over Detroit- The Steelers have their swagger back after they pounded San Diego last Sunday night, and with Ben Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall playing at a high level they should have no problem in winning at Detroit in their first visit since their Super Bowl win over Seattle. Matthew Stafford is nicked up (and may not even play) for the Lions, and will probably be in deep trouble against that Pittsburgh pressure. Kevin Smith will have to play a tremendous game for the Lions to have a shot, and Pittsburgh should win comfortably.
Dallas over Kansas City (Chiefs cover the 8.5 point spread)- Dallas certainly seems like it’s on a downward spiral after a crushing loss at Denver last week, and with their struggling offense likely without Felix Jones and Roy Williams, it’ll be a struggle for the Cowboys to muster up a great deal of offense depite facing the winless Chiefs, who will have top WR Dwayne Bowe at full strength. Larry Johnson has been downright atrocious this season and will try to bounce back. Can Kansas City realistically get their first win this week?
“It will be tough this week, even though Dallas may be a little vulnerable these days.” ESPN’s AFC West Blogger Bill Williamson said. “Kansas City may have to a wait a little while. Maybe it can win at Washington next week.”
“The Chiefs are not a very good football team, though they have a good running back in Larry Johnson who is struggling right now,” Said ESPN’s NFL reporter Calvin Watkins. “Wade Phillips said he’s surprised that Johnson is averaging only 2.6 yards per carry. Cowboys have to stop the run and force Matt Cassel to pass. Cassel is averaging only 5.1 yards per attempt.”
The game will be way too close for comfort from Dallas’ standpoint, but they should come out of Arrowhead with a much-needed win.
Minnesota (+9.5) over St. Louis- The Vikings are riding high after a spirited win over Green Bay, and the Rams are going back to their throwbacks to try to gain some kind of spark. The Rams can run the ball but are having trouble throwing it, and with Adrian Peterson looking to bounce back from a poor game, he should get the rock early and often. After what went down last year, the 0-16 question is starting to be brought up with the Rams, and the concerns are legitimate despite the fact that the team plays hard. Suffice to say that the people wanting the Rams to go winless won’t have anything to worry about this week.
NY Giants (+15.5) over Oakland- Even in the rare scenario Eli Manning does not play, the Jints should still cover the spread against the pathetic Raiders that will be without Darren McFadden. Every Giants fantasy player should have strong days and the defense should have a pretty easy day considering JaMarcus Russell’s dramatic deficiencies. The spread is what it is because this game is such a dramatic mismatch and New York should cover the large spread. Philadelphia over Tampa Bay (Bucs cover the 14.5 point spread) – It’d be very easy to pick the Eagles considering the Bucs are one of the three worst teams in the game. But Philadelphia will be having Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook in their first action in a few weeks, and there could be some rust involved. Tampa Bay showed some promise in taking a 10-0 lead over Washington before blowing it, but Josh Johnson will have to be mistake free for the Bucs to be within two TD’s like I’m saying they will. The Eagles will win, I’m just trusting in Tampa not to get blown right out of the Linc.
Carolina (+3.5) over Washington- Over the first three games of the season, DeAngelo Williams has rushed a total of 41 times, which isn’t close to enough. Despite a good Redskins rush defense, the Panthers need to run Williams and Johnathen Stewart down Washington’s throat to limit Jake Delhomme’s mistakes. The Redskins have scored a lot of their TD’s on deep throws, and guarding Santana Moss deep will be huge in this game, as will the performance of a banged up Clinton Portis. Look for Carolina to change their stragegy from their first three games and get their first win at homer over Washington.
Baltimore (+8.5) over Cincinnati- The pressure will be on Carson Palmer to get things done through the air in this game, unless Cedric Benson can be effective against Baltimore’s defense. Watching Chad Johnson struggle against the Ravens defense could be worth the price of admission in itself. Joe Flacco has been tremendous season so far, and the Bengals defense will be once again tested in a big division game. Look for the Ravens’ dangerously diversified rushing attack to be too much for the Bengals and the Ravens should force a turnover and cover the 8.5.
San Francisco (+2.5) over Atlanta- The Falcons’ 26th ranked rush defense means that the Niners should do fine on the ground even without Frank Gore, allowing Shaun Hill to manage the game. San Francisco needs to contain John Abraham, and Hill should have ample time to get the ball out. The Niners are fourth against the run and Michael Turner shouldn’t have too much success, forcing Matt Ryan to throw the ball. ESPN’s Football Scientist KC Joyner says that the game is a “Really tough call.”
“I can say that I like their chances because Nate Clements is finally playing up to his talent level and could take Roddy White out of the game because of it.”
Look for a solidly played defensive game with the Niners coming out on top.
Jacksonville over Seattle- We don’t really know if Matt Hasselbeck will be really ready to go from his rib injury, and the Jaguars offense really came to life last week against Tennessee. Maurice Jones-Drew, Mike Sims-Walker and maybe even David Garrard should all have quality performances. If J-ville can stuff Julius Jones and adequately cover TJ Houshmanzadeh and Nate Burleson, the Jaguars should have no problem going on the road and knocking off the Seahawks.
Arizona (+6.5) over Houston- Unless Steve Slaton has a really good game and the Texans dominate the time of possession, this game will probably be a shootout between two clubs that have good throwing QB’s and dominant receivers. But the game may not be a blowout like some people think.
“If Arizona slings it and gets ahead, Houston can sling it to stay in range and catch up.” ESPN’s AFC South Blogger Paul Kuharsky said.
That being said, I believe that Matt Schaub will turn the ball over at least once, with Arizona capitalizing and grabbing a TD+ win.
Denver over New England- The last time New England went on the road and played an elite 3-4 defense, they lost. Mike Nolan’s Broncos version can pressure the QB with elite DE Elvis Dumervil, can defend the elite receiver with Champ Bailey and have a secondary asset in run defense with Brian Dawkins. The Patriots will again be doling out their carries by committee now that Fred Taylor is out indefinitely. Wes Welker, Ben Watson and Joey Galloway will need strong performances with Bailey blanketing Randy Moss. On the defensive side, potentially having Jerrod Mayo back would be huge, especially with Knowshon Moreno getting the lion’s share of the carries with Correll Buckhalter sidelined with a high ankle sprain. If New England can ably defend the pass, they’d be in good shape. But look for Brandon Marshall to build on last week’s success, for Kyle Orton to get good protection and for Denver to remain undefeated.
Indianapolis (+3.5) over Tennessee- With the Colts potentially missing their two starting corners, this win won’t be a sure thing. I see Chris Johnson really going off in this one, and if Kerry Collins has time to throw, he could pick off a depleted Colts secondary. But all that being said, the Titans haven’t shown me that they can defend an elite offense like Indianapolis, especially with the league’s best player right now running the show. Cortland Finnegan will have his work cut out for him against Reggie Wayne, and the Colts just have too many receiving weapons for the Titans. Look for a Colts road win to put the Titans at 0-5 with New England on the schedule next.