Washington (+7) over Tampa Bay- These are the two teams I promised myself I would never pick the rest of this season, and obviously they play each other the next week. Both teams are brutal, obviously, but Josh Johnson is a Marlin, not a QB. He has a lot of potential, but it’s his first pro start and the Redskins defense is still pretty good. Derrick Ward will not be playing, so it’ll be up to Caddy Williams and Earnest Graham to carry the load after Kevin Smith did well for Detroit last week. But Washington should stack the line with Johnson in and contain their only chance at victory. Jason Campbell had a good statistical day last week and look for that to continue with Clinton Portis still on the mend. Look for big days from Santana Moss and Chris Cooley and look for a Redskin win. Or else Jim Zorn’s head may get chopped off. One note on Johnson from ESPN’s NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas:
 “You might be pleasantly surprised. Not saying he’s gonna throw for 400 yards, but I think he might bring a bit of spark to that offense.”
If Johnson plays well and leads the Bucs to the win, you heard it here first.
New England (+2) over Baltimore- The Patriots got a big statement win over Atlanta and had full participation in practice on Friday, and both Randy Moss and Wes Welker should both be in the lineup. New England’s offensive line will have to be in top form to block for Tom Brady and Fred Taylor because the Ravens should apply similar pressure to what the Jets did in week two. New England will be ready this time, but will they be ready on defense. Joe Flacco has been sensational thus far in Baltimore’s 3-0 start and their trio of running backs can do a lot of different things well. So what do the Pats do on defense?
“Hmmmm. That’s a good question.” Said former Patriots LB Tedy Bruschi. “Who do you stop? This Ravens offense can do it all. As a LB the first thing they need to do is stop the run. If you win on first and second down and get them in 3rd and long, you have a chance to get them off the field.”
Todd Heap may not play in the game, and forcing even a very good QB like Flacco into pressure spots should be the way to go on defense. Look for the Patriots to build momentum from last week and knock Baltimore from the ranks of the unbeaten.
Tennessee (+3) over Jacksonville- A Jeff Fisher team couldn’t possibly go 0-4, could they? Tennessee would have beaten the Jets if not for two fumbles by Ryan Mouton, and their defense is fired up and ready to go in front of a half full J-ville crowd. Expect a big day from Chris Johnson, and expect Tennessee to force a couple of turnovers and narrowly escape with a win over the Jaguars.
Houston (+9.5) over Oakland- This spread is way too high to have a ton of confidence in a team like Houston that has a difficult time stopping the run, which is why Darren McFadden could have a big day. But JaMarcus Russell is an incredibly bad QB, and I will find it extremely hard to pick any team with him as the leader. With Kevin Walter and Andre Johnson now really back to full strength, look for a big day from Matt Schaub and for the disaster known as the Raiders to roll along at a sickening pace.  
Cincinnati (+5.5) over Cleveland- The Buckeyes is usually the best football team in the Oh-io, but the Bengals are making their case for the crown this year. Having an easy win agains the rival Browns will help. Derek Anderson is the QB, Jamal Lewis will probably be out, and defensive coach Marvin Lewis has finally put out a strong defense after being kept way too long as head coach. I never thought a Bengals team would win a game on defense and running the ball, but Cedric Benson has really revived his career. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t the comeback player of the year. It also helps that the Browns are awful and their fans and players have already turned on Eric Mangini. Hang in there Cleveland, Mangini is in the first year of a four year contract, and there may be plenty of losses to the Bengals over that span.
Indianapolis over Seattle- The chances of the Seahawks winning this game in Indianapolis are about the same as Matt Hasselbeck playing: doubtful. With Seneca Wallace likely starting at QB, Julius Jones will have to have a legendary game for Seattle to win. Jones will definitely have a very good game, but with Peyton Manning gaining a rapport with Pierre Garcon and the possible return of Anthony Gonzalez, the Colts will have too many weapons offensively for Seattle to keep up. Manning was insanely efficient and the best player in football last week. Look for him to keep that type of performance going for the Seahawks.
NY Giants (+9) over Kansas City- The Chiefs will have some trouble putting up points without Dwayne Bowe, and the Giants can stuff Matt Cassel and the KC offense just like Philadelphia did last year. Mark Bradley will have to have a great performance, and New York will be confident after totally dominating Tampa Bay even without Aaron Ross and probably Chris Canty this week. Brandon Jacobs will look to prove himself after a slow start to the season, and Ahmad Bradshaw should play despite an injury. Eli Manning should have plenty of time to air it out to Steve Smith and Mario Manningham, and will have a nice day passing even without Domenik Hixon.
Chicago over Detroit (Lions cover the 10 point spread)- Don’t ask me why I’m picking the Lions to do well for the second straight win, I just have a feeling that the Bears are going to overlook the Lions at home and a confident Matthew Stafford will be able to let this team at least hang around throughout the game. Matt Forte will likely have a stellar effort against the Detroit defense but I expect Jay Cutler to make a couple of mistakes. If Kevin Smith plays, I think he’ll have a very good game as well despite some skepticism from ESPNChicago’s Nick Friedell:
 “I think the Bears can stop him, because they have some speed on the end.” Friedell said. “They’ll see the film like everyone else and try to correct all the mistakes that the Redskins made.”
But a mistake I think the Bears will make is having too much confidence. Lions will cover this game.
Buffalo (+2) over Miami- The Dolphins didn’t pass much with Chad Pennington, and they’re certainly donwgrading in that department now that they have Chad Henne making his first career start. Buffalo has a good front seven which will obviously lock in on the wildcat and the run. Chad Henne cannot turn the ball over for the Phins to have a chance to keep up with Lee Evans and Terrell Owens with their poor pass coverage. Look for Buffalo to split the carries between Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch, and a mistake free Trent Edwards would make this a blowout win for the Bills. They’ll certainly win this game quite comfortably on the road.
New Orleans over NY Jets (Jets cover the 7 point spread)- The last time Drew Brees played against a Rex Ryan defense, he was overwhelmed by the pressure and he’ll probably be bothered by the pass rush again. But the abcense of both Lito Sheppard and Donald Strickland will allow the Saints to spread the ball around against second string players, unless Darrelle Revis can cover them all at the same time. Pierre Thomas should have an efficient game for New Orleans if he’s employed on some of the draws and misdirections that Sean Payton likes to employ. Mark Sanchez will have to face his first real hostile environment in the Superdome and the New Orleans defense is much improved. Look for the Saints to eke out a close win in the 20’s, but the Jets should be able to keep it closer than a one TD game.
San Francisco (+9.5) over St. Louis- Even without Frank Gore, Glen Coffee should be able to carry the load just fine, and the Niners will basically let their defense do the talking for them against a simply anemic Rams offense led by Kyle Boller, who failed on far better teams than what they have in St. Louis. Look for Frisco to dominate the time of possession and come out an easy winner.
Dallas (+3) over Denver- The Broncos will get their first real test on Sunday against the number one rushing offense in the league, which will be without the dangerous Felix Jones, but Marion Barber will return to the lineup, splitting carries with Tashard Choice. The Cowboys really need to worry about Denver’s premeir pass rusher in Elvis Dumerville, who leads the league with six sacks so far. The Cowboys need to stick with their game plan of running the ball early and often on the road, not allowing Tony Romo to make mistakes. Dallas did a good job of forcing Carolina into mistakes last week and pressure on Kyle Orton (16-2 in his career as a starter at home) and look for a steady dose of Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno. Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal have been off to slow starts and getting them involved is important against a weak Cowboys secondary. But Dallas should be able to affectively run the ball and come away with a huge road win.
Pittsburgh (+6.5) over San Diego- Even without Willie Parker, the Steelers can do a good deal of damage on the ground with Rashard Mendenhall. Miami ran the ball quite well against San Diego, and so will Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger has been very good throwing the ball this year and that should continue this week. Like the Dolphins last week, the Chargers are a one-dimensional team offensively without LaDanian Tomlinson. Darren Sproles will not cut it against that Steeler defense, and Phillip Rivers will likely see constant pressure, which should basically neutralize the weapons the Bolts have at receiver. This is a must-win game for Pittsburgh with Baltimore cruising and Cincinnati currently ahead, and the Steelers will play with that sense of urgency it will take to win.