Houston (+3) over Buffalo (Ian Eagle, Rich Gannon)- To me, this pick is not as clear cut as most people would think. Matt Schaub has obviously been on a tear, with eight TD’s and just two picks over his last three weeks, but the Bills have had an excellent pass defense this season that somehow forces turnovers with seemingly average talent in the secondary and an OK pass rush. They’re 10^th in the league in passing, eighth in sacks and number one in interceptions. They’ll need all these components to beat Houston at home on Sunday. But since the Bills are dead last in the NFL in run defense, Steve Slaton should be getting the ball early and often. The Texans are in the bottom half of the league on defense, and there should be a heavy dose of the running game to protect Trent Edwards if he does play. Look for Schaub to break through with one or two big plays that should lift Houston to victory.
Chicago (+13) over Cleveland (Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcotts)-After the way Chicago played last week after Cincinnati, it’s a good thing they have the Browns this week. If the Bears were playing any other team besides maybe Tampa, St. Louis, Detroit or Washington I’d take the home team. Cleveland is bad against the pass, but it seems like Jay Cutler has been bad against everyone. So a heavy dose of Matt Forte is exactly what Chicago needs to get off the schneid. Derek Anderson could have a big day in the air if he doesn’t get in his own way first. Look for the Bears to take out their past losses out on the Browns in the Pound.
Dallas (+9.5) over Seattle (Dick Stockton, Charles Davis)- Dallas’ pass defense fared well against Atlanta last week mainly due to their pass rush, and that unit should continue to carry the defense against a Seattle team that just lost Walter Jones for the season and perhaps his career. The run defense has been better over the last couple of games, and the defense should get to Matt Hasselbeck. Seattle has a middle of the road defense that Tony Romo should do well against if given time and if the offense doesn’t shoot themselves in the foot with silly penalties. Miles Austin should be able to continue his success and Dallas should come up with a double digit win.
Detroit (+3.5) over St. Louis (Ron Pitts, John Lynch)-As bad as Detroit is, St. Louis can’t stop the pass for their lives and Matthew Stafford should have a very strong day passing to Calvin Johnson. Come to think of it, neither team is good on defense, so it’ll come down to turnovers and the Lions have forced twice as many turnovers this season as the Rams. Steven Jackson should have a very good game but I can’t trust Marc Bulger to pick St. Louis in a game. Lions for the win? Yes!
Indianapolis (+12) over San Francisco (Sam Rosen, Tim Ryan)-The Colts obviously have an incredibly proficient offense, but it’s the team’s defense that will win this game for Indianapolis by more than 12. They’re sixth against the pass with an underrated pass rush playing against a QB in Alex Smith who hasn’t started in quite some time. Frank Gore will have to have a really big day like Steven Jackson did last week to keep it close. The Niners will need to put on their best defensive performance in a long time to keep their offense in it. Colts by at least 12.
Miami over NY Jets (Jim Nantz, Phil Simms)– The two teams played a thriller in South Beach just a few short weeks ago and it will be about which team adjusts. Rex Ryan will have to figure out how to stop the Wildcat without Kris Jenkins plugging the middle. Ryan knows that he needs to put the heat on Chad Henne when he’s in the game, but the ground game should be Miami’s main focus early so they can erase their excruciating loss to New Orleans last week. Mark Sanchez played a great game against the Dolphins in their last meeting and he might be able to do even more with Will Allen out for the season. Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene should have far less success than they did over the last two weeks, and I don’t see how New York will be able to stop the Wildcat and the Miami running game without Jenkins. Look for another close Dolphins win over the Jets.
NY Giants over Philadelphia (Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa) –Brian Westbrook may not play with a concussion he suffered Monday in Washington, and LaSean McCoy would have to play an enormous role if he’s out. New York’s pressure on defense has been disppointing over the last week, and they need to make Donovan McNabb uncomfortable and limit the big plays, especially from DeSean Jackson. Eli Manning has been terrible over the last two weeks and going on the road in a big game should inspire him to come out in a big way. The running game should come back to form and I can’t trust the Eagles just two weeks after a loss in Oakland. A Tom Coughlin team in a must-win game can’t be picked against this week.
Baltimore (+3.5) over Denver (Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf)- The Broncos need to protect Kyle Orton from the Ravens defense and it’ll be on rookie Knowshon Moreno to do some damage on the ground. But the 3-3 Ravens will have a killer instinct in them on defense and should neutralize the Denver attack. But Broncos DC Mike Nolan returns to Baltimore with quite a 3-4 unit of their own and Joe Flacco could have a tough day on Sunday, but expect the Ravens to play with an enormous sense of urgency and will end Denver’s unbeaten run.
Jacksonville over Tennessee (Gus Johnson, Steve Tasker)- Vince Young will get his opportunity to start, which is nice, but not a winning scenario against a Jaguars team very much in the playoff race. Jacksonville will easily take advantage of Tennessee’s last-ranked, injury-ravaged defense with David Garrard slinging it out to Torry Holt, Mike Sims-Walker and Maurice Jones-Drew. Chris Johnson will have to be VY’s bailout plan on Sunday or it could be another Jags blowout win over the Titans this season.
San Diego (+16.5) over Oakland (Dick Enberg, Dan Fouts)- JaMarcus Russell’s confidence has to be shot after being replaced last week against the Jets and the Chargers should be riding high after crushing the Chiefs on the road. LaDanian Tomlinson should have a big day against the Raiders, who will likely not show anything despite playing San Diego close in the first game. Phillip Rivers should have a big day, as should the Chargers at home.
Arizona (+10) over Carolina (Chris Myers, Brian Billick)- The Cardinals defense is tops in the league against the run, which is the Panthers strength with DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart. Their pressure on Eli Manning led to three picks last week and their pressure on embattled Carolina QB Jake Delhomme should force him into a few mistakes as well. Carolina is number one in the league against the pass but 26^th against the run so a more balanced Cardinal attack than usual should pay dividends in the form of another win in Glendale.
Green Bay (+3) over Minnesota (Thom Breneman, Troy Aikman)- The Green Bay crowd will be in a frenzy in a huge game not just because of Brett Favre’s return to Lambeau Field but because a Packers win could give them the inside track at the NFC North title. Green Bay’s offensive line will need to put forth a sterling effort against Jared Allen and Minnesota’s pass rush, but Ryan Grant should have a good game and Aaron Rodgers will throw all over the Vikings secondary without Antoine Winfield if given the opportunity. And Favre will turn the ball over at least two times against a Dom Capers defense that will be extremely fired up. The Packers need to limit Adrian Peterson’s big plays and will, and the Packers will come away with an enormous win.